Winter is Coming
an economic and historical book, by James Goulding
Navigate, Winter is Coming [published in 2003]
DOWNLOAD appendix A & B which are missing from the ebook
Also, visit my Generations page. It shows the graphs, in both appendixes, in color.
Winter is Coming - BLURB.com (physical and ebook version)
It's been over 7 years since I finished Winter is Coming. Some of my predictions were wrong, some were right. However, the most important prediction was correct. That prediction was to get out of the market at the end of 2008 because a debt crisis would ensue.
I want to address two things in this new introduction. The first concerns some advice I've given my friends since the credit crisis began, in the fall of 2008. The second looks at my predictions from 2003.
The following is a closely reproduced note I sent a friend of mine. He asked me a simple question, "what should we do now that the crisis is here?"
The best advice I can give you is to anticipate what's going-on in your industry. Ask yourself some questions, like, are there threats to your job being outsourced or severe cutbacks to your company due to lack of business? Will your industry be hurt by Austerity (government budget-cuts and layoffs)?
Do you have a pension at your company or government job? Is it under-funded? If it is, donít plan on getting 100 cents on the dollar. Itíll be more like 50 cents on the dollar. Whether your pension is in the public or private sector, you can retrieve the information you need to determine if your pension is safe (fully funded and insured). Don't be in denial, face the fact that we got screwed (again) by the elite and now you and I need a plan. Stay out of, or, pay down debt as quickly as possible because deflation is debt's enemy. Money is worth more tomorrow than it is today, so people save more. We grew up knowing the opposite of that which was inflation. In an inflationary environment money is worth more today than tomorrow.
Your salary has a good chance of getting cut but your debt level will stay the same (at the very least, you will not receive a raise). Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's devaluing of the US dollar will send the price of the products that we need to survive, like Oil, corn, and metals etal higher.
We are in deflationary times and it isn't going away, I don't care how many $s the fed prints. If you have a mortgage, refinance because rates are low. If you can, purchase a 15 yr mortgage not a 30 yr. If you think your house will grow in value over the next 15 years, like it did in the 80s, 90s and early 00s, it won't. There arenít enough people to buy the inventory. You can see a picture of this in the housing study I did, back in 2003, on my website, here: http://www.jamesgoulding.com/Downloads/Housing.xls
The demographics in the United States have changed although not as drastic as other countries. The Millennial generation is very large (b1982-2004?). Therefore, our housing crisis can get better as the Millennial generation enter the market in the late teens' to buy their first homes. However, prices still must come down.
In the end of the book, The Fourth Turning, written in 1997, Strauss and Howe wrote an entire section called "How to prepare" for the coming "Winter era" (that they correctly predicted). I highly recommend it. [That ends the note I sent to my friend with the advice on how to handle this Winter era.]
Secondly, I'd like to address the two predictions, from 2003, that I got wrong. The one I take the most heat for is that I predicted either the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) would trade 35,000, or, in 2009, the market would crash. Therefore I advised that people should be out of the market at the end of 2008 no matter where the DJIA was trading because the stock marketís value would be cut in half.
We now know that the crash came first and the DJIA topped out at 14k, and then broke down to 7k. When that occurred, all the wealth in the US was cut by a substantial percentage. We had an economic crash and the size of inheritance and household net worth was cut by a huge amount. Now, in 2011, the tax laws will change. As a result, the surviving generations will soon be receiving less than projected. The stock market will be stuck in a range for the next decade. I missed DOW 35k but correctly predicted the market being cut in half.
The second thing I missed was the beginning of the 4th Turning (Winter). I thought it began in September of 2001 because of, 9/11. I remember sitting across the table from Neil Howe, back in 2003, when he asked me if I really thought we'd entered Winter. I told him I thought we had. He said we hadn't and 9/11 would turn out to be a spark that fizzled. Now we know he was correct. However, we both concur that the Lehman bankruptcy was the beginning of Winter. The most important evidence is society's response to the crisis. They've responded to the credit crisis by changing their collective behavior, from shopping, to saving money. After 9/11, nothing changed collectively that lasted for more than a few months and the country splintered into factions after the invasion of Iraq. That is not the recipe for a 4th Turning (Winter).
I intend on writing a book called Winter is Here. However, I'd like to write a sequel to Nano. I can't decide. We shall see.
Lastly, thank you for purchasing my book. I sincerely appreciate it.
Saturday, November 24, 2010
Abstract Winter is Coming
Winter is coming, tells the story of a crisis era called Winter. This crisis is just a few short years away. The work in this book is based on two generational theorists, William Strauss and Neil Howe. The book also includes economist Harry S. Dent's work.
You'll want to read this book if you want to know, why and who is forcing the coming crisis. How the crisis era cycles through American History arrive like clockwork, yet, they shock everyone when they come
Learn how reoccurring financial, war, generational, and political cycles contribute to our history and shape our future.
how 'America's Greatest Generation' ripped you off
why 'boomers suck'
how approximately every 85 years, the generations line up in specific age location that set the stage for the Winter era
about America's biggest threat, the Euro
Winter is Coming is short, concise and a great introduction to the brilliant work of Strauss and Howe.
Society experiences a catalyst that shocks everyone out of an individualized stupor. Suddenly focus is shifted on a national level. This focus shifts attention from internal, national problems to outer, world problems. World problems that were once ignored by the people in this country come to the forefront. Itís as if a collective mind turns its attention to what is going on outside this country.
* * *
Vietnam wasnít anything like Iraq in 2003. Not even close. Wars in a 4th Turning (Winter) are total. S&H go on to write, "Crisis-era wars were all large, deadly, and decisive. Home front resolve conformed to the visions of the elder leaders, and the outcome totally redefined the kingdom, nation or empire."
 Generations; The History of Americaís Future, 1584 to 2069, Strauss and Howe, p. 265.
* * *
What Gen-X knows is that things are about to get messy. Revolutionary messy. And, I am not talking about Boomers shaking their collective fists at their G.I. fathers. Iím talking about all-out massive societal chaos. One question still stands: When is this all going to happen?
* * *
Idealist generations are terrible at making collective decisions. That fact is going to make or break us when the crisis sparks. The Idealistsí history as collective thinkers when making decisions about our future while in complete control of the political landscape is terrible, the worst incidence being the Civil War. The Civil War is an example of a Winter era gone bad.
* * *
The Boomer archetype is Idealist. The Idealist generation alive during the Civil War was the Transcendental (b.1792-1821) and they are personally responsible for the early arrival of the War. Furthermore, they are responsible for the slaughter of the Gilded generation (Nomad).
Of the seven-million Gilded men who reached combat age, ten percent died in the War. That casualty rate is equal to eight times WWIIs. Of the remaining Gilded men, five percent of them ended the war in ďdisease-riddenĒ POW camps.
 Strauss and Howe, Generations 210-211.
* * *
Tom Brokaw labeled the G.I.
generation (b.1901-1924) the ďgreatest generationĒ in his book of the same
title. I beg to differ.
There are many things that this generation did that
are great. They were truly the perfect Hero
generation. They came together when the country needed them, both men and women.
But this chapter is not going to shine the light on their good deeds. This
chapter will shine the light on something this generation did that is affecting
all of us, right now. Furthermore, itís not the first time this generational
archetype shifted federal entitlements.
billions and billions of government money away from every other generation alive
when they were in political power. They held the White House for thirty years
with nine U.S. Presidents. They held Congress 1953ó1975 and barely gave up
control in 1977, as they held onto 47% of the power.
They ran on the majority ticket twelve straight times 1944-1988.
During these years, they made sure that their generation was taken care of.
Unfortunately, they did it at our expense.
 Strauss and Howe, Generations 265.
 Ibid 268.
The cover is a collage of pictures.
The idea was simple. Find pictures relating to reoccurring national crisisí. Then, lay those pix over a background pic of something that speaks to the season of winter.
Since Winter is Coming deals with a reoccurring crisis cycle, in American history, I went to the Internet and plugged in the date I wanted along with the name of the crisis.
The pictures in this document are the individual pictures used in the collage for the cover. First I show the original picture I used. Meaning, the picture in its original form before cropping and digital enhancements. Then, I show the final cropped enhanced pic used on the cover.
Picture 1 is the evening paper from October 29, 1929 heralding the final crash of the stock market that had started on September 10, 1929. Basically, October 29, 1929 was the straw that broke the camels back. It was the last of many mini-crashes that took place over a 10-week period that began September 10, 1929.
If you look at the right side of the picture, under the word PANIC, youíll see a smaller headline that says ďBankers Finally Bring Selling to Halt Three Minutes Before CloseĒ. Thatís the headline I wanted. Picture 2, shows the first stage of making the headline into the final product for the cover. Picture 3 shows the final product I used for the cover.
Picture 1 (October 29, 1929)
Picture 2 (Crop and Distort headline)
Picture 3 (Negative with brightness adjusted)
This particular crisis era was a double whammy. The era ran from 1929-1945. The second incident was, of course, the bombing of Pearl Harbor. FDRís letter to Congress is shown below. I thought the quote in the first paragraph was paramount. Its so recognizable. ďA date which will live in infamyĒ.
Picture 4 (FDRís Letter to Congress, December 8, 1941)
Picture 5 depicts the final product for the cover, which I cropped the first paragraph, then embossed that in dark grey.
Picture 5 (FDRís Letter to Congress, December 8, 1941, Embossed)
The next picture is a very interesting document. Itís the secret document that was sent to FDR well ahead of the bombing. In fact the document was dated February 1, 1941. Basically, FDR and the rest of the morons in Washington knew this was going to happen. They not only did nothing to stop it, they encouraged it, for numerous reasons that this paper wonít cover. The document is evidence of a pattern that has occurred in every ĎWinterí crisis era. That is, the politicos always know of the destructive event thatís going to take place. The event is usually devastating in either of two ways, loss of life or financial ruin.
Picture 6, below, was used because I wanted to convey the message that politicians, during these types of crisis cycles (Winter), are at their peak of scuminess. I wanted this picture so badly that I used the whole thing without any enhancements. Picture 6 is on the upper left-hand side of the cover.
Picture 6 (Secret document sent to FDR, February 1, 1941)
I used one last picture from the 1929-1945 crisis era. The original is shown in picture 7, below.
Picture 7 (Headline, Monday December 8, 1941)
I simply cropped the headline, and then created a 3-D shape in MS Word. Then, I used the cropped pic as the background for the 3-D shape. Picture 8 shows the crop, and picture 9 shows the final product.
Picture 8 (Cropped Headline December 8, 1941)
Picture 9 (Cropped with 3-D Headline December 8, 1941)
* * *
The winter crisis era of 1929-1945 wasnít the only crisis era weíve experienced in the US. The winter crisis era is a cycle repeated over and over again. The other pictures on the cover depict 2 other winter era cycles weíve experienced, since becoming a nation. The American Revolution and the Civil War.
Picture 10, is the original pic, used to represent the beginning of the Civil War winter era. The picture is a document about the Dred Scott decision. Scholars like to argue about exactly what was the spark that lit the candle that ignited the Civil War. Some state that it was the Dred Scott decision. I donít believe that it was. However, I see it as a catalyst, like Strauss & Howe (of the book Generations) do.
Picture 10 (Dred Scott Decision)
The picture went through several changes before I decided on the pic you see on the cover. The phases of the Dred Scott pic are below. Picture 14 was the one I used on the cover. Picture 11 shows the date of the decision. I decided against using the date pic because I thought the name carried more weight than the date.
Picture 11 (Dred Scott Date Cropped)
Picture 12 (Dred Scott Name, Yellowed)
Picture 13 (Dred Scott Name Cropped)
Picture 14 (Dred Scott Name Cropped and Embossed)
The spark that lit the candle that began the civil war is one of two things. Either Lincoln being elected or Fort Sumter. I chose Fort Sumter.
Fort Sumter was attacked April 18, 1861. This incident was truly the stepping-off point for the beginning of the war, as far as fighting was concerned. From this date forward the fighting escalated. Pix 15-17 depict the evolution of what your see on the cover
Picture 15 (Fort Sumter Original)
Picture 16 (Fort Sumter Cropped)
Picture 17 (Fort Sumter Cropped and Negative with Brightness Adjusted)
Picture 17 is placed in the middle of the cover.
* * *
The winter era prior to the Civil War was the Revolution. The era took place 1773-1794. I considered a picture of Paul Revere, which you can see below. I decided against it and I really donít know why.
The battle of Lexington/Concord is best described by www.kidport.com
ďOn April 18, 1775, British General Thomas Gage sent 700 soldiers to destroy guns and ammunition the colonists had stored in the town of Concord, just outside of Boston. They also planned to arrest Samuel Adams and John Hancock, two of the key leaders of the patriot movement.Ē
Picture 18 (Paul Revere)
Picture 19 (The Battle of Lexington Original)
Picture 20 ((The Battle of Lexington Embossed)
Picture 20 is the one you see on the cover of the book. I simply embossed the original. The picture is on the lower right hand side of the cover.
The last photo, used to depict a crisis era, is the Declaration of Independence, below.
Picture 21 (The Declaration of Independence Original)
The date is a tad significant donít you think? Also, I used the original. Although I did try to do several things to the photo, in the end, I decided on the original. If the British didnít believe we were for real from all the acts committed 1773-1775, then this sent them a message that we were going to become free or kick their ass.
Lastly, the background photo, used for the cover, is shown in picture 22. If this pic doesnít depict winter I donít know what does. Itís a beautiful photo. I found it on www.targetvision.com. They have some great stuff there.
Picture 22 (Background for Cover, Icicles)
The following pic was an idea that got thrown out. I thought it was pretty cool though.
Picture 23 (Ice with Title, Author)
The final process for putting the cover together was taking picture 22 and pasting all the other pics onto it. I built it in MS Picture It! 99, because the program is great for making collages. I laid the final pic over itself to give it the affect you see in the final product, which can be seen at the very beginning of this document. Thanks for your interest in the creative process of making the cover of Winter is Coming.
References and Acknowledgments
Paul Revere's ride, Illustration. 208-FS-3200-5. (revolutionary_war_007.jpg)
The first blow for liberty. Print by A.H. Ritchie. 200(S)-JH-3. (revolutionary_war_008.jpg)
Battle of Lexington. Drawing from engraving by Amos Doolittle, a Connecticut militiaman. 111-SC-92639. (revolutionary_war_009.jpg)
Reading the Declaration of Independence from the east balcony of the State House in Boston. 1776. Illustration. 148-GW-ll4I. (revolutionary_war_023.jpg)
Declassified docs (Japan decoded messages)
How to cite FDR library (all photos are in public domain)
Japan FDR library
Declassified Japanese warning doc.
http://www.worldnewsstand.net/msc/Pearl.htm (cite with this page also.)
Civil War pix compliments of the Library of Congress
Battle of Lexington. Drawing from engraving by Amos Doolittle, a Connecticut militiaman. 111-SC-92639