Generations II
Taking Strauss & Howe's, Generational Diagonal a Step Further
Let's take some of the tables, from the Generations page, and put them into one table.
I'll start at the beginning of the 4th Turning, in 1773, known as the American Revolution Crisis. See the pattern?
Key: AA = Artist/Adaptive IP = Idealist/Prophet RN = Reactive/Nomad CH = Civic/Hero
| 1773 | 1794 | 1822 | 1844 | 1860 | 1866 | 1886 | 1901 (1908) | 1929 | 1946 | 1963 | 1984 | 2009? |
| AA ( 81-100) | IP (71-93) | RN (81-98) | CH (78-102) | AA (69-93 | AA (75-99) | IP (66-94) | RN (68-86) | AA (70-86) | IP (64-86) | RN (63-80) | CH (60-83) | AA (67-84) |
| IP (50-73) | RN (53-70) | CH (56-80) | AA (53-77) | IP (39-68) | IP (45-74) | RN (45-65) | AA(A)(49-67) | IP (47-69) | RN (46-63) | CH (39-62) | AA (43-59) | IP (49-66) |
| RN (33-50) | CH (28-52) | AA (31-55) | IP (22-52) | RN (18-38) | RN (24-44) | AA(A)(26-44) | IP (26-48) | RN (29-46) | CH (22-45) | AA (22-38) | IP (25-42) | RN (28-48) |
| CH (8-32) | AA (3-27) | IP (0-30) | RN (2-21) | AA (A) (0-17) | AA(A) (6-23) | IP (4-25) | RN (0-17) | CH (4-28) | AA (4-21) | IP (3-21) | RN (3-24) | CH (5?-27) |
What in the world is so important about the pattern?
Start at the left on the light blue square marked 1773. Look down in that column at the age locations of the generations that were alive at that time. Now move to the light blue square marked 1860. Then to the light blue square marked 1929, then to 2009. Uh oh. That's a crisis era. The beginning of a crisis era. Every one of those columns, headed by a light-blue square, is a crisis era. You may ask, "Yea but what about the Civil War era?" See the Civil War Anomaly.
So, as you can see, there's another crisis era coming. That's exactly why I wrote the book, Winter is Coming. I wanted to give a short explanation of what was coming. The book takes thousands of pages of research and put's it into about 69 pages. I even tell you what chapters to read in Strauss and Howes books.
The cycle above has been running since 1435.
Let's take the years from 1435-1772 and see if we can see the same thing.
| 1487 | 1517 | 1542 | 1569 | 1594 | 1621 | 1549 | 1675 | 1704 | 1727 | 1746 | |
| E | CH | AA | RN | RN | CH | AA | RN | RN | CH | ||
| M | CH | AA | IP | RN | CH | AA | IP | RN | CH | AA | |
| RA | CH | AA | IP | RN | CH | AA | IP | RN | CH | AA | IP |
| Y | AA | IP | RN | CH | AA | IP | RN | CH | AA | IP | RN |
The Millennial Cycle (Summer Cycle)
| Cycle = Millennial | 1946 (1st T) | 1964 (2nd T) | 1984 (3rd T) | 2009?(4th T) |
| Elderhood 63-83 | Missionary (64-86) | Lost (63-81) | GI (60-83) | Silent (67-84) |
| Midlife 42-62 | Lost (46-63) | GI (40-63) | Silent (42-59) | Boom (49-66 ) |
| Rising Adult 21-41 | GI (22-45) | Silent (22-39) | Boom (24-41) | Gen-X (28-48 ) |
| Youth 0-20 | Silent (4-21) | Boom (4-21) | Gen-X ( 3-23 ) | Millennials (6?- 27) |
Great American Power Cycle (Winter Cycle)
[note: the Civil War Crisis (1860-1865) was the only anomaly since the cycle began in 1435.]
| Great American Power Cycle | 1866 (1st T) | 1886 (2nd T) | 1909 (3rd T) | 1929 (4th T) |
| Elderhood 63-83 | AA (75-99) | IP (66-94) | RN (68-86) | AA (70-86) |
| Midlife 42-62 | IP (45-74) | RN (45-65) | AA(A)(49-67) | IP (47-69) |
| Rising Adult 21-41 | RN (24-44) | AA(A)(26-44) | IP (26-48) | RN (29-46) |
| Youth 0-20 | AA(A) (6-23) | IP (4-25) | RN (0-17) | CH (4-28) |
Civil War Cycle
| Civil War Cycle | 1794 (1st T) | 1822 (2nd T) | 1844 (3rd T) | 1860 (4th T) |
| Elderhood 63-83 | IP (71-93) | RN (81-98) | CH (78-102) | AA (69-93 |
| Midlife 42-62 | RN (53-70) | CH (56-80) | AA (53-77) | IP (39-68) |
| Rising Adult 21-41 | CH (28-52) | AA (31-55) | IP (22-52) | RN (18-38) |
| Youth 0-20 | AA (3-27) | IP (0-30) | RN (2-21) | AA (A) (0-17) |
Revolutionary Cycle
[note: In the beginning of this cycle, the reactive-nomad generation took up all of the midlife and elderhood age location . This was the Cavalier generation, b1618-1647. The Puritan generation (b1588-1617) had mostly died off by the time 1704 came around.]
| Revolutionary Cycle | 1704 (1st T) | 1727 (2nd T) | 1746 (3rd T) | 1773 (4th T) |
| Elderhood 63-83 | Reactive-Nomad | Reactive-Nomad | Civic-Hero | Adaptive-Artist |
| Midlife 42-62 | Reactive-Nomad | Civic-Hero | Adaptive-Artist | Idealist-Prophet |
| Rising Adult 21-41 | Civic-Hero | Adaptive-Artist | Idealist-Prophet | Reactive-Nomad |
| Youth 0-20 | Adaptive-Artist | Idealist-Prophet | Reactive-Nomad | Civic-Hero |
Colonial Cycle
[note: In the beginning of this cycle, the reactive-nomad generation took up all of the midlife and elderhood age location . This was the Reprisal generation, b1512-1540.]
| Colonial Cycle | 1594 (1st T) | 1621 (2nd T) | 1649 (3rd T) | 1675 (4th T) |
| Elderhood 63-83 | Reactive-Nomad | Reactive-Nomad | Civic-Hero | Adaptive-Artist |
| Midlife 42-62 | Reactive-Nomad | Civic-Hero | Adaptive-Artist | Idealist-Prophet |
| Rising Adult 21-41 | Civic-Hero | Adaptive-Artist | Idealist-Prophet | Reactive-Nomad |
| Youth 0-20 | Adaptive-Artist | Idealist-Prophet | Reactive-Nomad | Civic-Hero |
Reformation Cycle
| Reformation Cycle | 1487 (1st T) | 1517 (2nd T) | 1542 (3rd T) | 1569 (4th T) |
| Elderhood 63-83 | The Civic-Hero box below is the first | Civic-Hero | Adaptive-Artist | |
| Midlife 42-62 | generation S&H cover, the Arthurian Generation | Civic-Hero | Adaptive-Artist | Idealist-Prophet |
| Rising Adult 21-41 | Civic-Hero | Adaptive-Artist | Idealist-Prophet | Reactive-Nomad |
| Youth 0-20 | Adaptive-Artist | Idealist-Prophet | Reactive-Nomad | Civic-Hero |
The Civil War Anomaly by Strauss and Howe
We have already observed that the Civil War Cycle lacks a Civic-type generation.
At 62 years, this cycle is fully 19 years shorter than any other. A mere 29 years separates the end of the Civil War Crisis from the end of the preceding (Transcendental) awakening. What happened?
First, the crisis came early. The initial year of the crisis came 51 years after the middle birth cohort of the Transcendental (Idealist) generation. The other crisis periods began 76, 62, and 61 years after the middle Idealist birthyear. This made a substantial difference. Consider the 1920s, when Franklin Roosevelt's midlife Missionary generation was still crusading for its great Prohibition "experiment" and the rising-adult Lost had yet to emerge from alienation and pleasure-seeking. Suppose a combination of depression and global fascism had hit then. Very likely, the national mood would have been more fragmented, public action less decisive. Likewise, imagine what form the American Revolution might have taken had it occurred before the Stamp Act riots of 1765--and what sort of Constitution might have appeared had it been written by holy midlife Awakeners or hard-luck Liberty young adults, rather than by confident and public-minded Republicans. In effect, these odd hypotheticals point to what happened in the Civil War, when a still-zealous Transcendental generation congealed a crisis in midlife. Picture some facsimile of the Civil War waged fifteen years later--with the Transcendentals less energetic, the Gilded more settled, and a more mature and effective Progressive generation serving as disciplined young order-takers. The generational cycle suggests that the crisis would have been resolved with far less tragedy.
Second, the three adult generations allowed their more dangerous peer instincts to prevail. Following the failed efforts of Henry Clay, Daniel Webster, and John Calhoun to avert war, the elderly Compromisers of the Buchanan era were unable to rise above empty process and moral confusion. The Transcendental generation split not just into two competing factions, but into two self-contained, mutually-exclusive societies. Transcendental leaders--the likes of Abraham Lincoln, William Sherman, Thaddeus Stevens, Jefferson Davis, and Julia Ward Howe--were, as a generation, unable to resist waging war (and peace) with ruthless, apocalyptic finality. The younger Gilded never outgrew an adventurers' lust for battle or an easily-bruised sense of personal honor--never, that is, until the war was over. Given their failings, these three adult generations steered a very dangerous constellation, and together produced the nearest approximation of holocaust America has ever experienced. Place the Civil War cycle alongside the generational calendar of its two neighboring cycles--Revolutionary and Great Power--and we notice how the Civil War occurred roughly a decade before the Revolution and World War II, a decade after the French and Indian War and World War I. It managed to combine the worst features of both: the colossal scale of the former with the lasting bitterness of the latter.
Third, the crisis came to an untriumphant end. Was the Civil War a failure? We need not answer the question yes or no, but simply observe that, for each of the other secular crises on our list, it would be difficult to imagine a more uplifting finale than that which actually occurred. For the Civil War, it would be easy to imagine a better outcome. Yes, the union was preserved, the slaves emancipated, and the industrial revolution fully unleashed. But consider the enormous cost: deep-rooted sectional hatred, the collapse of Reconstruction into the era of lynchings and Jim Crow, and the long delay that postwar exhaustion later imposed on most other social agendas, everything from antitrust policy and labor grievances to education and women's rights.
-Excerpted from the book Generations, by Strauss & Howe