From: HS Dent Publishing [hhoffman@hsdent.com] Sent: Tuesday, February 25, 2003 3:44 PM To: jimndi@Ameritech.Net Subject: Your H.S. Dent E-letter Has Arrived! E-Letter from H.S. Dent Publishing Tuesday, February 25, 2003: Volume 1, Issue 4 ===================================== Please forward to a friend *without* cutting! Get Your Own: http://www.hsdent.com/home.cfm "Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." -Woody Allen ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Inside this week 1) Why Businesses Should Target the 55 - 64 Age Range 2) Go West Old Man-The future impact of retirement 3) View from the Street *********************Pop Quiz************************ Q: What does the Sixteenth Amendment cover? (answer at bottom) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ When the Pepsi Generation looses it's fizz We have a culture that idolizes youth. The last thing you ever want to be called is "old". The problem with this preoccupation with anything young is that it hides a major economic trend. Like it or not, Americans are getting older - in record numbers. With this economic trend comes a host of opportunities (and pitfalls) for investors. Understanding the dynamics of this aging group will have a profound impact on your investment decisions. Why Businesses Should Target the 55 - 64 Age Range Even though the largest demographic segment of the massive baby boom generation will be the peak spenders between the ages of 45 - 54 in the coming decade, the fastest growing demographic segment will be the consumers in the 55 - 64 age bracket. This group is commonly called the pre-retirement or pre-elderly. These 6.5 million households will enter this age range between 2000 and 2010 vs. 3.6 million for the 45 - 54. The 35 - 44 segment will actually decline by 3.5 million by 2010 as the baby bust enters this age range. This 55 - 64 age group focuses increasingly on travel and leisure, financial services and health care. Investors would be wise to develop portfolio strategies in these equity sectors, along with technology, due to it's S-Curve acceleration trend. Additionally, this age group also tends to drive fewer miles in their cars and often downsize to smaller homes. >From 2010 - 2020 the 65 - 74 will be the fastest growing segment with the 55 - 64 following as the largest overall segment. Then the 75 + segment will grow the fastest after 2020. The best way to insure that your business or the businesses you invest in survive the next great economic downturn, from 2010 to 2023, will be to target the rapidly growing retirement population and their needs. General sectors that should do well in that downturn decade would include health care and biotech and retirement real estate and services. Read about S-curves and the Great Economic Downturn http://www.hsdent.com/Content/s-curve.cfm http://www.hsdent.com/Content/deflation.cfm ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Go West Old Man-The future impact of retirement The greatest areas of opportunity for business and real estate will continue to come from exurban areas that are attracting the pre-elderly and the retirement population. And of course that trend is being enabled by the S-Curve acceleration of Internet and communications technologies. Although a substantial percentage of retirees shift to more remote resort and recreational areas like Arizona or Florida, the great majority retire "in place", in the same areas where they have been working and/or have family relations. So, the best suburban or exurban areas just outside of attractive cities will boom along with the most compelling resort areas and college towns. If we look at the trends in which cities and geographical areas have attracted the most retirees in the last decade we can get a better clue as to where the growth will continue to accelerate as the pre-retirement and retirement age groups grow in the coming decade. Remember that on a 63-year lag for average retirement, baby boomers will be retiring in rising rates from 2000 - 2026. Las Vegas tops the list of the top 30 metro areas with the highest elderly growth from 1990 - 1998. It has good weather, entertainment and low living costs. Other large metropolitan areas include Houston and Austin, TX. But most of the other magnets have been smaller metropolitan areas like Myrtle Beach, SC; Wilmington, NC; and Las Cruces, NM. The top seven states for elderly growth have been in the West starting with Nevada, Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico. About 45% of this growth has occurred as a result of migration from California to other Western states. And in the South, Florida is now one of the slowest growing areas for the elderly. South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas and Georgia are growing substantially faster. As we forecast in The Roaring 2000s, college towns are booming and those areas represent the less common exurban growth areas in the Midwest and Northeast, including smaller metro areas like Bloomington, IN; Burlington VT; and Madison, WI. The few real growth stories in major metro areas are Minneapolis and Columbus, OH, which are strong university cities. To summarize: The elderly population is projected to grow 79% between 2000 and 2025. They will be the best segment of the population to target for business and for companies to invest in. ********************************************* Special Limited Offer for Financial Professionals Only! Build your business, stay in contact with your customers and save money. Get Forecast, our monthly newsletter at $199 and we'll include a case of Roaring 2000s (20 Books) and the Roaring 2000s CD Rom. You save $130! Shipping and handling extra. Call 1-888-307-3368 (9-5 EST) or visit the web at: http://www.hsdent.com/Store.cfm?category=36 ********************************************* View from the Street We risk seeing this week unfold as a selling week--unless volume and demand pick up. Yes, we have seen an effort to rally, but now we must see more demand or the rally risks failing under its own weight. Traders can take positions so long as one recognizes that a break below either of the last two Friday lows will not be positive. In other words, risk management remains king--as good as the bounce feels--there is much work to do to confirm it is anything more than a bounce. View provided by: Mike Williams http://www.genesisfn.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For years we have developed and disseminated research that is based on demographics, predictable spending patterns, and the S-curve of market penetration. The underlying theme has always been that the consumer is king. The average guy buying the average stuff at the average store for the average price. Our goal is to equip every investor, no matter what stage in their financial lifecycle, with accurate, practical information for making their investment decisions. Invest wisely. Brian Nixon H.S. Dent Publishing This free newsletter is published by H.S. Dent Publishing. H.S. Dent Publishing does not make any warranties, express or implied, regarding the information contained in this e-letter. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE: If you do not wish to receive our e-letter, you can unsubscribe at this page: http://www.hsdent.com/main.cfm Type your email address into the e-newsletter sign up box and select unsubscribe. Copyright (c) 2003 H.S. Dent Publishing. All rights reserved. A: Woodrow Wilson signed the Sixteenth Amendment in 1913 that empowered Congress to levy an income tax. It's hard to believe this one little sentence would cause so much grief. The Sixteenth Amendment: The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several states, and without regard to any census or enumeration.